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A Mathematician Plays The Stock Market, by John Allen Paulos
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From Publishers Weekly
We like to think not only that mathematicians are smarter than the rest of us but that by dint of their mastery of numbers, they hold the key to understanding the baffling mysteries of the universe. Alas, Paulos (Innumeracy) says that's not always the case. As the author relates in this funny, insightful little volume about attempts to bring order and science to the free-for-all that is the stock market, he himself was once a big investor (in WorldCom). Despite strong evidence to sell, he desperately hung on to his stock as the price plummeted, proving that a head for numbers doesn't always translate to Wall Street know-how. Through most of this book, Paulos discusses various methods for predicting markets and offers thoughts on why people keep trying to perfect them. Shocking in their obtuseness are the so-called Elliot Wave followers, who believe stocks operate according to an impossibly arcane series of numerical waves and cycles. The efficient-market theorists-many of whom believe the stock market is so inherently efficient that everything one needs to know about a company is reflected in its stock price-get the most thorough joshing from Paulos: never able to resist a joke, he tells one about how many efficient market theorists it takes to change a light bulb. "Answer: None. If the light bulb needed changing the market would have already done it." Playful and informative, Paulos's book will be appreciated by investors with a sense of humor. Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information, Inc.
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Review
Mr. Paulos, who teaches mathematics at Temple, has a knack for making technical concepts clear and entertaining -- Wall Street Journal, July 16, 2003Paulos is a genius at translating the arcane .... This book should be required reading for anyone opening a brokerage account. -- Washington Post, June 22, 2003Paulos makes the process rewarding for those who want a better understanding of how the market works -- Kansas City Star, August 17, 2003Throughout this wide-ranging survey, the writing is spirited, funny and clear. -- New York Observer, June 6, 2003Yes, there are many percentage signs in this book ... But Paulos' humor and clarity will see you through. -- USA Today, June 15, 2003a double-chocolate nougat of a book — a rich, densely packed delight. It is also rueful, funny and disarmingly personal -- Los Angeles Times, July 30, 2003there is a certain pleasure to be had in reading that mathematical genius need be no barrier to financial comeuppance -- The Independent (London), July 26, 2003
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Product details
Hardcover: 224 pages
Publisher: Basic Books; First Edition edition (May 2, 2003)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0465054803
ISBN-13: 978-0465054800
Product Dimensions:
5.8 x 0.8 x 8.5 inches
Shipping Weight: 8.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
3.2 out of 5 stars
94 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#1,288,650 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
This is a non-technical first introduction-sort of survey of many big ideas that are told for understanding the behavior of assets, markets and investors. I wish I had read this some years ago, as I wound up cobbling together this sort of content myself. It is a quick read, and does not offer tools that are directly actionable, in the sense of, ready to plug into a spreadsheet. It is a step back from that sort of thing. Basic investment strategies according to broad categories are described (fundamentals, value, growth, technical analysis) along with behavioral economics in braod terms. It is wrapped into the author's story of some truly primitive mistakes on the way to losing on an investment in WorldCom in the dot-bomb bust.
Alternate titles which I considered for this review of the book by the well known professor John Allen Paulos were:"A Survey Course in Investment Theory", or"Don't Confuse Intelligence with Insight", or"How Smart People Do Dumb Things" or even,"A Little Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing'.This book is really two separate literary endeavors, and while they are intertwined the first forms the platform for the second. In some ways, the book needs a bifurcated review, since it suffers from seemingly being directed at multiple audiences. The basis of the book is Paulos' cautionary story of his disastrous flirtation with the stock of Worldcom during the final phase of the "market bubble" in 2000 and 2001. The tale is remarkable only for the fact that it proves that knowledge and intelligence may be necessary conditions for avoiding investment disaster but they are far from sufficient (as logicians would say). A very smart college professor suffered exactly the same sort of disastrous losses in the stock market as many other traders and investors who forgot to balance risk and reward or let greed overwhelm fear in the constant tug-of-war between those opposing emotions. Paulos uses this tale, whose various aspects are interspersed throughout the book, as the basis of a very interesting discussion of many aspects of investment theory. There is also an excellent bibliography for those readers who are interested in pursuing some of the ideas which he discusses.The author presents an excellent discussion of the intersection of mathematics and psychology (with some economic and business theory added) that is comprehensive enough to provide readers with a solid basis for understanding market fundamentals. He also discusses stock picking techniques and strategies, including the differences between fundamental and technical analysis. And his discussion of such topics as The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Chaos Theory and Expected Value are rigorous yet understandable. Unfortunately, the strong point of the book will undoubtedly be its major weakness for many readers. That is, it elucidates the theoretical underpinnings of the current state of academic research with regard to investment theory in a very understandable fashion, but except for the cautionary impact of his personal tale and some general investment guidelines which emanate from the material presented, there is little here of practical help to an individual investor. (As a student of the market and former managing partner of an investment firm, I found the book very enjoyable. It succeeded in filling in some gaps in my knowledge base and in some cases reminded me of lessons that I had forgotten.) So, if you are looking for an interesting in-depth introduction to some aspects of the mathematics and psychology of investment theory written in a very entertaining manner, this book is highly recommended and my four star rating is appropriate. (I should probably caution that my approach was to read a chapter at a time, since that gave me time to reflect upon the material rather than losing it's impact by immediately proceeding to a new concept.) However if you are looking for light reading or a practical investment handbook, then this book may disappoint you.Tucker Andersen
This book could very easily be used as a text book for most standard Security Analysis courses, and do a better job of teaching the subject matter The author takes a bit of a survey approach in discussing the various ways and methods used in forecasting and/or valuing stocks. It presents a very objective, and often lighted-hearted, review of both modern and classical financial theory, explaining them in a sufficiently technical way as to meet the needs of the topic, but not in such a manner as to make the discussions boring or opaque for those being introduced to the concepts.This is not a manual on trading. While the author's personal story of major losses in WorldCom stock do provide the means to learn a few lessons, he is not providing a do this, do that sort of strategy for making money in the markets. That said, however, some of the research and studies he quotes are worth reviewing.Even for an experienced stock trader or investor, this is a book worth reading. Paulos presents some things that have been overlooked, and oftentimes turns a different kind of light on the market than one generally uses.
Bad news is not that mathematical; good news no formulas!More about psychological aspects of investing than mathematical aspects of investing. There are better books out there on psychology and the stock market.
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